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1. Margin of safety
   • Account for unforeseen problems by building a buffer between what you expect to happen and what could happen
     • Has applications in time management, investing, strength training, project management, personal finance
2. Inversion
   • Instead of thinking about your ideal situation and gearing your preparations toward this, it is important to think about the worst case, and have preparations in place in case this happens
   • Instead of thinking, “how could we be more innovative?” think “how could we be less innovative?”
     • Then do everything to eliminate these barriers that come up
   • Instead of thinking, “how can we attract new customers?” think “what would alienate our core customers?”
     • Then do everything to avoid the points that come up during this thought experiment
   • Premeditation of evils
     • Fast forward 6 months and think about all the ways your project could have failed à equipped with this knowledge, do everything in your power to prevent these things from happening
   • Productivity
     • Think of all the things that would decrease your productivity, then eliminate them
3. First principles thinking
   • Boiling a process down to the fundamental parts that you know are true and then building up from there
   • Don’t assume anything or make logical leaps, start only with things that are absolutely true
   • The rolling suitcase wasn’t invented until 1970 when Bernard Sadow saw someone lugging a heavy suitcase and someone else wheeling a heavy piece of machinery
   • People often try to advance the form of something rather than advancing the function
   • Old conventions are often accepted without being questioned, they set a boundary around creativity
   • Optimize the function, ignore the form à this is how you think for yourself
4. Second order thinking
   • Weighing consequences down the road for decisions made now – not being short sighted
   • “Failing to consider second- and third-order consequences is the cause of a lot of painfully bad decisions, and it is especially deadly when the first inferior option confirms your own biases. Never seize on the first available option, no matter how good it seems, before you’ve asked questions and explored.” – Ray Dalio
   • Improving second order thinking
     • Ask question “and then what”
     • Consider consequences in 10 minutes, 10 months, 10 years
     • Write out consequence tree to visualize better
     • Understand how ecosystem will react to these changes
   • A lot of the best interactions have no payoff at the first order level but are positive at the second and third levels – most people can’t see these things
5. Trade-offs
   • “It’s not always that we need to do more but rather that we need to focus on less”
   • Time is a scarce resource that we must decide how to allocate, it is a zero sum game
     • When we allocate time to one thing we must take time away from another
   • If we try have it all we often end up with nothing – it is better to focus fully on a few things than partially on many things
   • Consider the tradeoffs of a decision before you make it – come to terms with it
   • You will feel less regret and be overall more satisfied with you decisions if you do this