by Nasseem Taleb
Black swans are highly improbably events that disprove core theologies based in empirical evidence. It only takes one occurrence to shatter existing foregone conclusions
Black swans account for a small percentage of what occurs in the world but dictate most of the chance that occurs
What you don’t know is more valuable than what you do know
A highly improbably event occurring is as much of a black swan as a highly probably event not occurring
Most calculations of risk do not take black swans into account, yet they are at the core of the most material change that ultimately dictates the direction of global events
Black swans are so impactful because of how unexpected they are
We don’t need to improve our prediction of the base result we need to expand the robustness of errors to be expected
We try to predict what will happen in 30 years when we cannot even predict what will happen tomorrow
The dangerous part is that many “experts” are very confident in their views of the future and this belief they disperse into society makes us more vulnerable to the inevitable occurrence of the black swan
We must focus on what we do not know rather than what we do know. We must prepare for the improbable rather than trying to predict It — leave ourselves a margin of safety
Most of the key innovations in history occur by mistake, as the product of continued tinkering and luck
We were not made to be introspective — survival in our original environment did not require It
We are not equipped for the recursive nature of society with the rapid information flow that currently exists
Society does not encourage margin of safety. If a legislator had instituted a law that all cockpit doors be bullet proof on 9/10/2001, 9/11 would not have happened. This being said no one would have known this, therefore this man would have gotten no praise and would likely be booted out of office for increasing costs for airlines
The economist who comes in to fix the economic disaster gets far more recognition than the one who avoids It all together. The incentive system inherent in society is flawed
The norm is irrelevant, true character is shown not under mundane circumstances but rather under those that are extreme
Great intellectual fraud is believing we understand something because we know how It works under the bell curve